Most important races to watch in 2024 election | Opinion

We are in the middle of an unprecedented two-month period of political drama. The unique dynamics of late November municipal and special congressional elections, followed quickly by major political events in the upcoming year, leave little time for political junkies to celebrate the holidays. But, somehow, we’ll manage.

Results of the 2nd Congressional District special election and various municipal contests have only recently been finalized due to the late election date. Are there lessons to learn from 2023 as the 2024 election season begins very soon? 

Pignanelli: “Everything in life is unusual until you become accustomed to it.” — Frank Baum  

What we endured in 2023 heralds a peculiar 2024 election cycle. Rural voters controlled the elections to replace Rep. Chris Stewart, a dynamic which GOP nominee Celeste Maloy focused on with resounding success. Thus, 2024 federal and statewide candidates will direct more attention to energized voters off the Wasatch Front who could play a decisive role in multicandidate primaries.

Salt Lake City Mayor Erin Mendenhall was opposed by individual challengers and well-financed special interest organizations. They attempted to create discomfort among voters with numerous attacks ads claiming the capital city was a nightmare. But this tactic did not jibe with voters’ positive discernment of Mendenhall and her leadership qualities. Campaign experts are increasingly concluding that dumping loads of money into advertising has diminishing returns. An understanding of the audience combined with a clever strategy is the most efficient approach.

Political operatives should be grateful for the guidance the “Thanksgiving election of 2023” is providing.

Webb: A big 2023 lesson was this: Never take anything for granted in politics, because long shots can win. Celeste Maloy came out of nowhere to defeat political heavyweights Greg Hughes, Becky Edwards and Bruce Hough, among others. Hughes, Edwards and Hough had decades of experience and high visibility in Utah politics. They seemed born to run for Congress. But Maloy leveraged her rural advantage, ran a grassroots campaign and won rather handily.

On the other hand, the Salt Lake City mayoral race went about as expected. Voters re-elected the safe, sensible, mainstream incumbent, Mayor Erin Mendenhall, rather than the hard-charging disruptor, former Mayor Rocky Anderson.   

Recent political developments have come fast and furiously, and will only accelerate in the new year. Prospective candidates must spend the holidays making final decisions about running, because the 2024 candidate filing period is Jan. 2 to Jan. 8. Those in play include Rep. John Curtis, who earlier declined to join the U.S. Senate race. But then supporters and PACs have inundated local airwaves asking voters to urge Curtis to run, and he is reconsidering. Meanwhile, the presidential race will heat up with the Iowa caucuses coming on Jan. 15. And Robert F. Kennedy Jr., enjoying a surge in the polls as an independent, was scheduled to visit Utah this week. What sense can be made of this frenetic activity?

Pignanelli: The popular Curtis deflated supporters with an Oct. 2 guest editorial in this paper announcing his decision to not seek the Senate seat. Some followers then scrambled to other candidates who were courting them. But the congressman enjoys deep respect among national organizations who financed an aggressive draft movement — a rarity in Utah. (There was a similar, smaller push for Mitt Romney in 2018.) Yet, Curtis does not have the luxury of time to announce a change in his plans.

Kennedy’s antiestablishment, anti-vaccine fervor is gaining traction among some locals frustrated with the current slate of leading presidential contenders. The earlier deadlines are pushing more political activity into our once peaceful holiday season.

Webb: 2024 is going to be a wild and crazy election year, with races ranging from presidential, U.S. Senate and four congressional seats, to governor, county leaders and legislative seats. With candidate filings beginning Jan. 2, we will know very quickly who the candidates are. Then they will have a long slog until the general election, Nov. 5, with plenty of milestones and obstacles in their way, including party caucuses, county and state conventions, primary elections and the general election.

Utahns will be closely watching the presidential race and the battles for control of the U.S. Senate and House.

And Maloy, having barely settled into her congressional office, must jump right back in the campaign game in 2024 to win a full two-year term.

Utah’s precinct caucuses will be held March 5. What can readers expect leading up to this traditional Utah political activity?

Pignanelli: State officials enduring filed opponents during a legislative session stimulates a new era of political strategizing and campaigning. This will affect policy deliberations and communications to constituents.

Webb: Republicans will hold their presidential preference vote during the March 5 caucuses. So Republicans who want to help nominate a presidential candidate should watch to see if the party makes good on its promise to broaden caucus participation and make it easy to vote, including for people who can’t get to their neighborhood caucus meeting. Donald Trump will be heavily advantaged if the vast majority of caucus participants are arch-conservative activists who don’t reflect the broader GOP electorate.

Republican LaVarr Webb is a former journalist and a semiretired small farmer and political consultant. Email:lwebb@exoro.com. Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah Legislature. Email: frankp@xmission.com.